4 February 2026 Current Affairs (With PDF)

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India–United States Landmark Trade Agreement (2026)

US Cuts Reciprocal Tariffs on Indian Goods to 18%, Withdraws Extra Duty Imposed in August 2025.

India to Boost Imports of US Energy and Technology While Gradually Cutting Tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers.

Key Provisions of the Trade Agreement

1. Tariff Rationalisation by the US

• Reciprocal tariffs on ‘Made in India’ products reduced from 25% to 18% with immediate effect.
• Additional 25% duty withdrawn, easing trade restrictions.
• Earlier context: In August 2025, the US had imposed tariffs up to 50%
• 25% reciprocal tariff & +25% additional duty linked to Russian oil imports by India

2. Market Access Commitments by India

• India to scale up imports of US goods, including Energy products, Advanced technology goods, Nuclear equipment
• Total projected imports: over US$ 500 billion (as reported by the US).
• India to progressively reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers against US exports.

Significance of the Agreement

1. Economic Significance

• Expands opportunities for Farmers, MSMEs, Entrepreneurs, Skilled workforce
• Supports the vision of “Make, Design and Innovate in India for the World.”

2. Technology & Industrial Benefits

• Facilitates access to advanced US technologies, especially in energy, defence, and high-tech manufacturing.

3. Strategic Reset in Bilateral Relations

• Marks an end to tariff-led escalation phase.
• Reinforces mutual trust and momentum in India–US strategic and economic ties.

4. Geopolitical Implications

• Strengthens India’s role in global supply chains.
• Helps counter China’s dominance in global trade and manufacturing networks.

5. Macroeconomic Stability

• Potentially Stabilises capital flows, Supports the rupee, Enhances investor confidence amid global economic uncertainty

India–US Trade: Key Facts

1. Trade Relationship

• The US is one of India’s largest trading partners.
• India maintains a trade surplus, driven mainly by services and high-value exports.

2. Bilateral Trade Volume

• FY25: US$ 132.2 billion
• FY24: US$ 119.71 billion
• Indicates strong upward momentum.

3. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

• The US is the 3rd largest investor in India.
• Cumulative FDI inflows (2000–2025): US$ 70.65 billion.

4. Major Trade Components

• Indian exports to the US: Pharmaceuticals, Engineering goods, Electronics, Gems and jewellery
• US exports to India: Crude oil and LNG, Aircraft and parts, Defence equipment

National Statistics Office (NSO): Nationwide Migration Survey

Why in News

The National Statistics Office (NSO) has announced a comprehensive all-India Migration Survey, scheduled to be conducted from July 2026 to June 2027, to generate updated and granular data on internal migration patterns.

Key Features of the Migration Survey

• The survey will collect detailed information on the scale and nature of migration in India.
• Focus Areas: Rural–urban migration, Inter-state movement, Duration and frequency of migration, Socio-economic drivers and consequences
• Aims to support evidence-based policymaking in employment, housing, urban planning, and social protection.

Recent Trends in Migration in India

1. Overall Migration Profile:

• India’s migration rate stood at around 28% (PLFS 2020–21).
• Significant gender-based divergence observed in migration patterns.

2. Gender-wise Migration Rates:

• Male migration rate: ~10.7%
• Female migration rate: ~47.9%
• Indicates migration among women is largely driven by social factors rather than labour mobility.

Major Reasons for Migration

1. Gender-Specific Drivers

• Females: Marriage remains the dominant reason, accounting for nearly 87% of female migration.
• Males: Employment and labour market opportunities are the primary drivers (around 23%).

2. Pull Factors

• Availability of jobs
• Higher income prospects
• Better access to education, healthcare, and urban amenities
• Particularly visible in rural-to-urban migration patterns.

3. Push Factors

• Limited employment opportunities
• Low wages and underemployment
• Environmental stress, natural disasters, and climate-related shocks
• Declining agricultural viability in certain regions

4. Rural Migration Context

• Nearly one-fourth of the rural population (about 26.8%) was identified as migrants in 2020–21
  (Economic Survey 2025–26).

Policy Measures to Address Migration Challenges

1. Strengthening Rural Livelihoods

• DAY–NRLM (Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana – National Rural Livelihoods Mission)
• Viksit Bharat – Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) Act, 2025

2. Enhancing Urban Resilience

• AMRUT (Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation)
• Smart Cities Mission

3. Social Security and Welfare for Migrant Workers

• Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Maan-Dhan Yojana (PMSYM) – pension support
• Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) – food security
• One Nation One Ration Card (ONORC) – portability of benefits across states

Delhi Declaration between India and the League of Arab States

Why in News

India and the League of Arab States (Arab League) adopted the Delhi Declaration following a high-level interaction involving the External Affairs Minister of India, Foreign Ministers of Arab countries, and the Secretary-General of the Arab League, marking a significant step in institutionalising India–Arab cooperation.

Delhi Declaration: Key Outcomes

1. Peace, Security and Global Governance

• Reaffirmed commitment to multilateralism and the rules-based international order.
• Emphasised respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states.
• Called for enhanced international cooperation against terrorism and extremism.
• Supported reforms of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to reflect contemporary global realities.

2. Economic Stability and Regional Connectivity

• Highlighted the Suez Canal–Red Sea Economic and Maritime Development Initiative (STREAM) as a key regional framework.
• STREAM aims to:
  - Strengthen maritime and logistics connectivity
  - Promote regional economic integration
  - Ensure security of global trade routes linking Asia, Africa, and Europe

3. Country-Specific Positions

(a) Palestine

• Reiterated support for a sovereign, independent, and viable State of Palestine.
• Welcomed outcomes of the 2025 Sharm El-Sheikh Peace Summit, particularly efforts toward a ceasefire in Gaza.

(b) Yemen

• Condemned attacks carried out by Houthi militias.
• Stressed the need to safeguard the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a critical chokepoint for international maritime trade.

League of Arab States (Arab League): Key Facts

• Nature: Intergovernmental organisation of Arab countries in Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
• Establishment: 22 March 1945, following the Alexandria Protocol (1944).
• Membership: 22 Arab states.
• Founding Members: Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Transjordan (Jordan), and Yemen.
• Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt.

Importance of the Arab League for India

1. Economic Significance

• Bilateral trade between India and Arab League countries exceeds US$ 240 billion.
• Arab states supply Over 47% of India’s crude oil imports & Around 50% of fertilisers and related inputs, critical for India’s food security

2. Strategic and Maritime Importance

• Major share of India’s external trade passes through Suez Canal, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden
• Stability in these regions is vital for India’s energy security and supply chains.

3. Indian Diaspora

• Over 9 million Indians reside and work in Arab League countries.
• The region is a key source of Remittances, Employment opportunities, People-to-people ties strengthening India’s soft power

Union Budget 2026–27: Dedicated Rare Earth Corridors

Why in News

The Union Budget 2026–27 announced the creation of Dedicated Rare Earth Corridors to strengthen India’s capabilities in mining, processing, research, and manufacturing of Rare Earth Permanent Magnets (REPMs)—a critical input for clean energy, advanced manufacturing, and defence technologies.

Dedicated Rare Earth Corridors: Key Features

• Proposed Locations: Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu
• Coverage: End-to-end value chain including Rare earth mining, Processing and refining, Research & development, Manufacturing of Rare Earth Permanent Magnets (REPMs)

What are Rare Earth Permanent Magnets (REPMs)?

• Among the strongest permanent magnets known, with high magnetic strength and long-term stability.
• Common types include Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets.
• Global demand for REPMs is projected to double by 2030, driven by clean energy and digital technologies.

Applications

• Electric vehicle (EV) motors
• Wind turbine generators
• Robotics and precision engineering
• Defence equipment and advanced sensors

Significance of the Initiative for India

1. Strategic Self-Reliance

• Reduces India’s critical import dependence, especially on China.
• During 2022–25, India imported 60–80% (value-wise) & 85–90% (quantity-wise) of REPMs from China.
• Corridors strengthen Atmanirbhar Bharat in critical minerals.

2. Climate and Energy Transition

• REPMs are essential for Renewable energy generation and Electric mobility
• Supports India’s Net Zero by 2070 commitment and clean-energy goals.

3. National Security

• Ensures a reliable domestic supply of rare earth materials for Defence manufacturing, Aerospace systems, Precision and surveillance technologies
• Reduces vulnerability to global supply chain shocks and geopolitical disruptions.

Complementary Government Initiatives

1. REPM Manufacturing Scheme

• Outlay: ₹7,280 crore
• Objective: Create an integrated domestic REPM manufacturing ecosystem.
• Capacity Target: 6,000 MTPA
• Scope: Entire value chain—from rare-earth oxides to finished magnets.

2. National Critical Minerals Mission (NCMM)

• Aims to build a long-term, end-to-end supply chain for critical and strategic minerals, including rare earth elements.
• Covers exploration, extraction, processing, recycling, and overseas asset acquisition.

3. MMDR Amendment Act, 2023

• Amended the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957.
• Key provisions include Creation of a dedicated list of critical and strategic minerals, Enabling auction of mineral concessions, Improving regulatory clarity to attract private investment

Nationally Notified Disasters

Why in News

16th Finance Commission (FC) has recommended that heatwaves and lightning strikes be included in India’s list of nationally notified disasters, recognising their rising human and economic toll amid climate change.

What are Nationally Notified Disasters?

• Nationally Notified Disasters are specific categories of disasters formally recognised under the Disaster Management Act, 2005.
• Such notification enables structured relief, response, and rehabilitation through government-backed disaster financing mechanisms.
• Recognition determines eligibility for assistance from:
  - State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF)
  - National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF)

Existing List of Nationally Notified Disasters

Currently, the notified disasters include: Cyclones, Droughts, Earthquakes, Fires, Floods, Tsunamis, Hailstorms, Landslides, Avalanches, Cloudbursts, Pest infestations, Frost and cold waves

Proposed Additions by the 16th Finance Commission

• Heatwaves
• Lightning strikes

These hazards are increasingly frequent, geographically widespread, and responsible for significant mortality, particularly among vulnerable populations.

Rationale for Inclusion

• Climate Change Impact: Rising temperatures and extreme weather events have intensified heat-related disasters and lightning fatalities.
• Public Health Dimension: Heatwaves directly affect labour productivity, urban health systems, and outdoor workers.
• Disaster Governance Gap: Absence from the notified list limits automatic access to disaster funds and structured compensation mechanisms.
• Equity in Relief: Inclusion ensures uniform relief norms across states rather than ad-hoc responses.

Significance of the Recommendation

• Strengthens Disaster Preparedness: Enables proactive mitigation planning and early warning investments.
• Improves Fiscal Federalism: Provides states assured access to central disaster funds for emerging climate risks.
• Aligns with Sendai Framework: Supports disaster risk reduction for slow-onset and climate-induced hazards.
• Human Security Focus: Shifts disaster policy beyond traditional sudden-onset natural disasters.

Debt-to-GDP Ratio

Why in News

India is projected to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio to around 50 ± 1% by 2030-31, reflecting fiscal consolidation efforts. For Budget Estimates (BE) 2026-27, the ratio is estimated at 55.6% of GDP.

Shift in Fiscal Policy Framework

• The debt-to-GDP ratio is increasingly being adopted as the primary fiscal anchor, replacing the earlier focus on the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, 2003.
• This transition reflects a move towards medium-term debt sustainability rather than short-term deficit control.

About the FRBM Act, 2003

• Objective: To guide government fiscal policy towards a sustainable and prudent path, ensuring macroeconomic stability.
• Key Focus Areas:
  - Controlling fiscal deficits
  - Ensuring responsible public borrowing
  - Enhancing transparency in fiscal management

What is Debt-to-GDP Ratio?

• A macroeconomic indicator that measures a country’s public debt as a percentage of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
• It serves as a proxy for the economy’s capacity to service and repay its debt over time.

Interpretation of the Indicator

• Lower Ratio: Indicates stronger fiscal health and higher debt-servicing capacity.
• Higher Ratio: Signals increased fiscal stress, higher interest burden, and elevated risk of debt sustainability challenges.

Significance of Using Debt-to-GDP as a Policy Target

• Long-term Sustainability: Focuses on overall debt stock rather than annual borrowing flows.
• Counter-cyclical Flexibility: Allows temporary higher deficits during economic downturns without breaching fiscal discipline.
• Global Best Practice: Aligns India’s fiscal framework with international norms followed by advanced and emerging economies.
• Investor Confidence: Clear debt targets improve sovereign credibility and reduce borrowing costs.

Bond Yields

Why in News

The benchmark 10-year government bond yield closed at around 6.77%, marking a sharp rise from the previous trading session and its highest closing level since mid-January 2025.

What are Bond Yields?

• Bond yield refers to the effective annual return an investor earns by holding a bond until maturity.
• It reflects the relationship between Coupon (interest) payments, and Principal value, relative to the bond’s market price.

Relationship Between Bond Prices and Yields

• Bond yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.
• When bond prices fall in the secondary market, yields rise, and vice versa.
• This inverse relationship exists because the fixed coupon is paid on a changing market price.

Economic Impact of Rising Bond Yields

1. Impact on Existing Bonds

• Higher yields reduce the market value of outstanding bonds.
• Investors holding older, lower-yield bonds face capital losses if sold before maturity.

2. Impact on Borrowing Costs

• Elevated government bond yields translate into higher borrowing costs for Corporates, Banks, Governments
• This can tighten overall financial conditions in the economy.

3. Broader Macroeconomic Implications

• Higher yields may Damp investment activity, Affect equity valuations by raising the risk-free rate, Influence monetary policy transmission

Power Gap Index

Why in News

The Economic Survey 2025–26 referred to the Power Gap Index to highlight that India’s realised strategic influence remains below its assessed potential in the Asian region.

What is the Power Gap Index?

• The Power Gap Index is a derived analytical metric based on the Asia Power Index, an annual assessment prepared by the Lowy Institute (Australia).
• It evaluates the difference between a country’s potential power and its actual influence in the regional system.
• A negative score indicates underutilisation of national capabilities, while a positive score suggests overperformance.

Asia Power Index: Key Features

1. Coverage:

• Assesses 27 countries and territories across the Asia–Pacific region.

2. Methodology:

• Uses 131 indicators grouped under 8 thematic pillars, including:
• Military capability and defence partnerships
• Economic strength and trade relationships
• Diplomatic reach and cultural influence
• Resilience, technological depth, and future resources

3. Purpose:

• Measures both material resources and ability to shape regional outcomes.

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